It not about who or what played the race card, or when... We have to look forward. Analyze paths to winning, and be somewhat pragmatic and honest about what could take place. Somebody is going to feel slighted at the end of this process, unless Indiana ends it. Here is what could happen:
1. Obama wins indiana it is over. Obama wins. SUSA showed today that this scenario is somewhat less likely. However, it still could happen. The MSM were nearly certainly push Clinton out of the race if she loses Indiana.
2. Obama finishes up the cycle with a roughly 160 delegate lead and receives the 40 or so of the remaining aristocratic delegates he needs to clinch. He is able to seat Florida and Michigan in full, because of this size of his lead. I think this is the most likely scenario. Obama wins. We will have a clear nominee by early June, and time enough before the convention.
(There is a small 2.5 option here that has Obama reaching the total needed sometime between June and August)
3. Obama leads in the delegate count. She leads in the popular vote if you count Michigan as 56% Clinton 44% Nobody, and you count Florida. This Clinton's only metric by which to catch up in the popular vote. Only if you count Michigan 92-2 does Clinton have any hope of catching up with Obama in delegates. Aristocrats stay out until the convention and the count goes to the second ballot. Obama wins. If suppers are going to support Obama there is not really any reason for them to wait for this scenario.
4. Obama leads in the delegate count. She leads in the popular vote if you count Michigan as 56% Clinton 44% Nobody, and you . The is Clinton's only metric by which to catch up in the popular vote. Aristocrats stay out until the convention and the count goes to the second ballot. Clinton wins in a stunning comeback over the pledged delegate total.
Now if people, even a small number of people, feel that they were slighted. And, Clinton wins in this made for tv generational moment. I think practicality (not as a scare tactic) tells us there will be problems.
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