The Ends

It not about who or what played the race card, or when... We have to look forward.  Analyze paths to winning, and be somewhat pragmatic and honest about what could take place.  Somebody is going to feel slighted at the end of this process, unless Indiana ends it.  Here is what could happen:

1. Obama wins indiana it is over. Obama wins.  SUSA showed today that this scenario is somewhat less likely.  However, it still could happen.  The MSM were nearly certainly push Clinton out of the race if she loses Indiana.

2. Obama finishes up the cycle with a roughly 160 delegate lead and receives the 40 or so of the remaining aristocratic delegates he needs to clinch.  He is able to seat Florida and Michigan in full, because of this size of his lead.  I think this is the most likely scenario. Obama wins.  We will have a clear nominee by early June, and time enough before the convention.

(There is a small 2.5 option here that has Obama reaching the total needed sometime between June and August)

3. Obama leads in the delegate count.  She leads in the popular vote if you count Michigan as 56% Clinton 44% Nobody, and you count Florida.  This Clinton's only metric by which to catch up in the popular vote.   Only if you count Michigan 92-2 does Clinton have any hope of catching up with Obama in delegates. Aristocrats stay out until the convention and the count goes to the second ballot.  Obama wins.  If suppers are going to support Obama there is not really any reason for them to wait for this scenario.

4. Obama leads in the delegate count.  She leads in the popular vote if you count Michigan as 56% Clinton 44% Nobody, and you .  The is Clinton's only metric by which to catch up in the popular vote. Aristocrats stay out until the convention and the count goes to the second ballot.  Clinton wins in a stunning comeback over the pledged delegate total.

Now if people, even a small number of people, feel that they were slighted.  And, Clinton wins in this made for tv generational moment.  I think practicality (not as a scare tactic) tells us there will be problems.


Display:


Re: The Ends (2.00 / 1)

Which is why Obama will be the VP

And don't think I didn't notice you try and blackmail the party...


by DTaylor on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:11:19 PM EST

Re: The Ends (2.00 / 2)

It is not blackmail if he has the lead.  People will not be satisfied with VP.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:13:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Ends (none / 0)

If he loses the popular vote he loses.

Try and fight a 48 state pledged delegate primary and cry when the party counts 50 states and takes popular vote into consideration so that its 1 vote 1 person???

My vote as a Dem in Cali should count MORE than a GOP crossover in Alaska not less.  Currently that GOP crossover gets 10 times the say in terms of votes per pledged delegate.

Popular vote is democracy as most understand it and that is who will win.


by DTaylor on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:15:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Unfortunately (2.00 / 2)

this is a race for delegates, not the popular vote.

Now please launch into your standard diatribe about how you'll reward Obama in eight years if he just gives you what you want now, otherwise you'll ruin his career forever. Since you did mention blackmail, and you, DTaylor, have the power to make that come true.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:18:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Coercive.. (none / 0)

Why do I keep getting the impression we are being coerced into Obama, just like we were into Bush?

Of course, the Obama camp takes every legitimate beef the Clinton folk have ans parrot it right back at us, nomatter how little sense it makes.

This is like some bad movie.


Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.
by architek on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:26:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Coercive.. (2.00 / 2)

Of course, you could also try winning instead of whining, but why give that a try, eh?

Clinton still has a small chance to pull this out. Fine. If she doesn't, she's just a lousy campaigner.

This is why we have elections. Not turns. You don't get a pony. Not yours.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:36:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Unfortunately (none / 0)

right - with 300 delegate (of the super kind) who have not cast that vote yet.


"Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle." Plato
by canadian gal on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:30:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I wont vote for him in 8 years either. (none / 0)

Well, that's the election right there, then, especially if you get a vote for every one of your sockpuppets, Mssrs. John Wesley Hardin was a Friend to the poor and T J Jefferson.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:37:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Great. (none / 0)

And I need to vote for Hillary because?


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:56:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Ends (2.00 / 1)

My vote as a Dem in Cali should count MORE than a GOP crossover in Alaska not less.

What the hell does that even mean?

If he loses the popular vote he loses.

Hillary Clinton has to win every remaining state by sixty percent or more to win the popular vote, and that's the low estimate.


by BlueinColorado on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:20:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She's ahead in the popular vote now.. (none / 0)

in case you hadn't noticed..


Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.
by architek on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:27:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She's ahead in the popular vote now.. (2.00 / 1)

sigh

In which states will McCain not be on the ballot in November?

Sweet christ you people are exhausting.


by BlueinColorado on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:29:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She's ahead in the popular vote now.. (none / 0)

In which states will there be a caucus this November?


No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.
by hornplayer on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:24:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: She's ahead in the popular vote now.. (none / 0)

Okay everyone the game we will be playing is checkers.....Moves made....Um, no I meant chess...more moves....hey, it was supposed to be backgammon, everyone knew that.....more moves....Chinese checkers is a true game.....more moves....this game is stupid and doesn't really show anything....Monopoly anyone????


I'm Ready For A Good Old GOP & John McCain Ass Kickin'!!!
by hootie4170 on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:48:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Ends (none / 0)

Hillary's supporters are starting to realize Barack brings nothing to the table.  He is not needed on HER ticket.  It's all a shame.  He was a shining star with potential in the party.  


Have you seen my other site, 777craprepublicanblog? No? Try 777smear.
by ChitownDenny on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:22:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Ends (2.00 / 1)

About blackmailing the party:  Do you think the party will unite behind Clinton if she somehow narrowly secures the nomination via a convention fight, while being 100+ pledged delegates behind Obama?  Assume also that Obama has a popular vote lead, excluding Michigan.


John McCain vows to overturn Roe
by soccerandpolitics on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:18:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Ends (2.00 / 1)

seemingly by outlining how the race could end I'm blackmailing the party.  I think that about says where the Clinton Campaign's chances lie.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:24:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Ends (none / 0)

Excluding Michigan?

There is no 48 or 49 state democratic party.

If Obama loses the 50 state popular vote then he can't complain if the SDs make sure the will of the people is done.


by DTaylor on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:04:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Ends (none / 0)

You didn't answer the question.  I didn't ask what should happen or who has a right to complain.  I'm interested in what will happen.


John McCain vows to overturn Roe
by soccerandpolitics on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:10:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Ends (none / 0)

Florida and Michigan will count at either 50% or more likely at 100%

Obama's delegates were already seated as the uncommitted in roughly the numbers he got in post voting poling.


by DTaylor on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:36:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Donna Brazile has suggested that (1.00 / 0)

blood will run if the streets if Obama is not given the nomination.

I can't imagine, for the life of me, how words/thoughts like that can help anyone - especially America.

Brazile should resign from the DNC...today.

In the meantime, do not blame Clinton for your final statement:  "As Race matters continue to explode this scenario just gets uglier."


by CoyoteCreek on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:14:55 PM EST

Re: Donna Brazile has suggested that (none / 0)

"blood will run if the streets if Obama is not given the nomination."

Who said that?


by DTaylor on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:17:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Donna Brazile has suggested that (2.00 / 0)

Rush Limbaugh and Coyote Creek.


by BlueinColorado on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No CC reporting on Brazile... (none / 0)

"Donna Brazille came right out and on a talk show with Maureen Dowd if Obama does not get the nomination "there will be blood.'"

Sorry my paraphrase was a little off.

And as far as Ruch Limbaugh saying it, I wouldn't know 'cause I don't listen to Dr. Drug.


by CoyoteCreek on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:28:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thats the far right's wet dream.. (none / 0)

Oh, they would LOVE that...  They would LOVE that..

That would be their BIG chance to do away with democracy forever... and ride in on their white horses to save the day for the rich and powerful..

All those new laws written under Bush.. would kick in, so we wouldn't have an election..

And it all would be 'the Democrats fault'..

Do I see Karl Rove in this somewhere?
Is this the big plan?


Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.
by architek on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:31:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Donna Brazile has suggested that (2.00 / 0)

Nobody said that.


by Skaje on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:21:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Link? nt. (2.00 / 0)


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:19:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Donna Brazile has suggested that (none / 0)

I went ahead and deleted it because I though it may suggest that.  It will lead to terrible racial division, but it will not be Clinton's fault


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You saw the report, too? (none / 0)


by CoyoteCreek on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:24:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You saw the report, too? (none / 0)

yeah


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:29:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thanks for deleting that sentence. (none / 0)


by CoyoteCreek on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:28:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Michigan is not going to count. (2.00 / 1)

Not going to happen. Zero votes for Obama in a state that includes Detroit?

Some people expect the Florida delegation to be seated somehow, but Michigan is simply not going to happen, especially if doing so changes the outcome.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:15:55 PM EST

Re: Michigan is not going to count. (2.00 / 1)

If you think 49 states worth of Democrats will sit by and let Obama hold Michigan totally silent you have another thing coming.


by DTaylor on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:17:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Heh. (2.00 / 1)

Who's blackmailing who now, hmmm?


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:19:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

REVOTE... (none / 0)

its the right thing to do.. we need to do it..


Universal healthcare IS a Democratic value
It's been defeated
Obama has the best $PIN that money can buy.
by architek on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:32:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Do you even know (2.00 / 3)

that the MI Judiciary slapped that down as unconstitutional?

Oh, of course not, why bother with the details. Jeebus.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:39:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Do you even know (none / 0)

When voting is unconstitutional its time for revolution.

This is SERIOUS stuff.

If you think the Democratic party will stand by and allow Michigan to be silence you are sadly mistaken.

I am not talking about Dean or Pelosi or MSNBC

I am talking about the democratic party.

Michigan and Florida will count.


by DTaylor on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:07:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Snort. (2.00 / 1)

Now you're calling for a revolution, but upthread you complain that someone supposedly threatened violence at the convention?

The court didn't hold that voting was unconstitutional. It held that Michigan's primary law renders a revote of the primary unconstitutional. Big difference.

So, Michigan won't count, and Florida probably won't, either. Try abiding by the agreed-upon rules next time.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:26:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Snort. (none / 0)

If you believe democracy is a privilege your statement makes sense.

If you believe democracy is a right more powerful than party or candidate then you are making a fool of yourself.


by DTaylor on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:35:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Snort. (none / 0)

Notice how you're making this argument because you believe it will help your candidate, though?


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:48:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Snort. (none / 0)

I would me making it regardless.

If Hillary was the one dodging a revote she would have lost my support.

Obama dodging a revote was a very unwise move.


by DTaylor on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 08:14:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Snort. (none / 0)

Eh. I'm not buying it. I'm familiar with your commentary, thank you.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 08:35:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan is sure as hell going to count. (2.00 / 1)

I think they should have revotes.  I think he'd win the revote.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:28:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But BO has always been the one to (none / 0)

block the revote.

And he might have had a shot 3 weeks ago, but time has not been kind to him and I doubt he would win if a revote could take place.


by CoyoteCreek on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:31:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan is sure as hell going to count. (none / 0)

everyone thinks he would have won the revote. But he blocked it. He could have come right out and matched the Clinton campaign offer to pay for a new election, and no one could have stopped it from there.

this is where you separate the dilletantes from the professionals. Clinton was willing to sustain a loss to move the marker down the board - meaning, she was willing to pay for an election that might have cost her delegates to have a convention that was free from the strife of people not being counted. Had she prevailed, whoever receives the nomination would have had more legitimacy in the eyes of both factions. Obama denied the party that.


by Little Otter on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:34:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He did not "block" anything. (2.00 / 2)

The courts did. The courts. Here:

A federal judge on Wednesday ruled Michigan's presidential primary law unconstitutional and blocked the state from giving voter lists from the Jan. 15 election to the state's major political parties.

U.S. District Judge Nancy Edmunds in Detroit ruled that the law's provision giving the list of voters' partisan preference only to the Democratic and Republican parties violated the rights of several small parties, who argued that the information should be distributed to all who wanted it or to no one.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:43:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He did not "block" anything. (none / 0)

Yeah, too bad he didn't support  it in the month before that ruling when it was on the table. McAuliffe made his financing offer about five weeks before then. Had Obama had the courage of his convictions and stepped up to the plate, Michigan likely would have voted. But Obama stopped that. That's what the man is about now - winning by not counting the votes.


by Little Otter on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:13:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Once again (2.00 / 1)

such a vote would be unconstitutional. You can ignore that, but it has some bearing on the subject.

Besides, he would win Michigan, so none of this makes sense outside of a parallel universe where everything Obama does is wrong because Obama does it, thinks it, might have thought it or whatever.


"This election is not about ideology, it's about competence." -Michael Dukakis
by MBNYC on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 05:23:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan is sure as hell going to count. (2.00 / 1)

Riiiiiight.
Here's Terry McAuliffe and Carl Levin re this very same issue in Michigan circa 2004:
"I'm going outside the primary window," [Michigan Sen. Carl Levin] told me definitively.

"If I allow you to do that, the whole system collapses," I said. "We will have chaos. I let you make your case to the DNC, and we voted unanimously and you lost."

He kept insisting that they were going to move up Michigan on their own, even though if they did that, they would lose half their delegates. By that point Carl and I were leaning toward each other over a table in the middle of the room, shouting and dropping the occasional expletive.

"You won't deny us seats at the convention," he said.

"Carl, take it to the bank," I said. "They will not get a credential. The closest they'll get to Boston will be watching it on television. I will not let you break this entire nominating process for one state. The rules are the rules. If you want to call my bluff, Carl, you go ahead and do it."


by haystax calhoun on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 09:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan is sure as hell going to count. (2.00 / 1)

According to current polls, Obama is ahead of McCain by five points in MI. Clinton loses to McCain by seven.

Next.


by BlueinColorado on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:30:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Ends (none / 0)

But what about the end of the GE.  Obama can't win it, and the SD's were created so we wouldn't have another 1968 (or so I was told by old party people at the convention this weekend).   The SD's have never been necessary.  They may find out that the SD's won't help the situation, even if they pick the more electable of the two candidates.

I think the more electable is Hillary, but a lot of people aren't going to be happy either way.  If Barry hadn't poo-pooed the idea of a unity ticket a while back, I think there would be far less animosity now, but he didn't want to share, so now we're stuck.  


by RobinLB on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:37:45 PM EST

Re: The Ends (2.00 / 1)

Do you think she would have accepted VP?


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:39:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If Clinton wins the nomination (none / 0)

It will be because late breaking voters and superdelegates believe that Obama is probably unelectable while Clinton at least has a chance.

Now, if enough people believe that, why should those parties be forced to choose a candidate whose nomination they believe is political suicide?  What benefits accrued to the Democratic party from the McGovern nomination?  Did they get this youth vote for a generation?  Hardly, Reagan was elected in a landslide just 8 years later and Jimmy Carter barely won in the post-Watergate era despite winning every Southern state but VA.

Choosing an unsatisfactory alternative for political reasons is one of the most basic forms of political corruption.  Just like choosing the wrong contractor or the wrong project instead of the ones who would be more competent or more beneficial in order to please certain constituencies who care more about their own desires and interests than the greatest overall good.

The chances of Clinton getting the nomination are well below 50%, but, if she does, it will most likely be because of the scenario I have described.  Now, you are free to behave whatever way you like in that event, but you will have to ask yourself whether you prefer to be a constituent who screams because a government chose to make costly infrastructure repairs to a bridge (that you don't use) instead of developing a museum that you wanted but few others did.  


by lombard on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 04:57:58 PM EST

Re: If Clinton wins the nomination (2.00 / 1)

The chances of Clinton getting the nomination are well below 50%

This is a remarkable understatement, but if it does come to pass I will be disappointed and then I will work my tail off to get her elected in the general. And in the much more likely circumstance that Obama gets the nod, I will expect all progressives and Democrats to do the same.


John McCain
by Mandoliniment on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 06:52:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

There is no popular vote (none / 0)

unless you seriously want to go back and re-do every caucus state with a primary.


by Garret on Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 08:13:43 PM EST


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